oooooh okay this is such an interesting topic, Rafe is such an interesting character to begin with, so i think his storyline in s4 is the one i’m most curious about. especially since we got nothing from him in the s3 finale for whatever dumb reason.
this is a very complex conversation to have, but to start, i don’t think i want a redemption for Rafe! and i think they kind of closed the door on him sacrificing himself for the pogues or Sarah in particular by having Ward do it in season 3. i truly don’t know how far they’re gonna go with him seeking revenge on the pogues for Ward’s death, or what they plan on doing with his character after this season, but whatever it is, i just don’t see him turning a new leaf by the end of it. the ending for Rafe i’d most like to see is him going to jail and losing all of his assets and possessions, including Tannyhill, so Pope can snatch it up and make it a museum that tells the true story of Denmark Tanny. but i’m getting ahead of myself, let’s talk about the really juicy stuff
do Rafe’s actions eat him up anymore? i definitely agree that in the first 2 seasons, he was an absolute wreck trying to hold himself together with coke and by desperately seeking Ward’s validation to keep himself occupied. but what about in season 3? he has that scene with Kie in episode 2 where he tries to paint himself as the victim for killing Peterkin, and i think that his denial truly runs that deep at this point. through spinning the story in his own mind, he’s convinced himself that he did the right thing so he doesn’t have to feel all the complicated emotions that we saw him feeling at the end of season 1 and even into season 2 in the aftermath of the murder. but in terms of Sarah, he does actually get emotional when he explains that he knows it was wrong, which is incredibly interesting to me. he clearly hasn’t done the same mental gymnastics in trying to defend himself for that, so i could definitely see him genuinely feeling remorseful, which opens up that same incredibly complex dynamic that he and Sarah have had for a while now. there’s a part of him that will always resent her for being Ward’s favorite for so long, but now we can see that there is real guilt about trying to kill her. i think that scene really captures the pure instability of Rafe’s mental state that still exists in some capacity, mainly in terms of Sarah, which we unfortunately don’t see a ton of moving forward in the season since he barely has any scenes with the pogues. in general, he actually seems pretty confident and secure, maybe the best we’ve ever seen him, in terms of his mental and emotional state. so is the guilt really bothering him that much? the coke doesn’t seem to be a coping mechanism for him like it had been before, like he was constantly using for the majority of season 2. but we just didn’t see him struggling with his past actions in season 3, it was much more about his present and especially his future.
but for season 4, i’m definitely expecting a return to the more unstable side of Rafe as he plots revenge. who will he target in particular? who does he think is most responsible? will he choose to leave the other pogues out of the crossfire? if he gets the chance to kill Sarah again, would he take it? if he really was remorseful at the beginning of season 3, has that been overtaken by rage by the beginning of season 4? the year and a half time jump makes this much trickier cause maybe he’s been trying to keep his mind off of it and do his own thing and resist the urge to get revenge but when he hears about the pogues getting recognition for their findings, it sends him off the deep end again? or has he been stewing the entire time? has the time given his rage the chance to simmer down a bit or has it only boiled over into something worse? now that he has the blessing of his father, which is the only thing he’s ever really wanted, what are his motivations? how will he shift his way of thinking now that there’s no more Ward to aspire to or to spite, and how will his mental state fare now that he believes that the pogues have taken away any opportunity he might’ve had to mend his relationship with his father?
there’s truly so many things to consider and countless different avenues that his path could take, and i really do not know what is most likely at this point!! Drew hasn’t even gotten to set yet so there’s absolutely no bts to speculate about either. personally, i love Rafe as a character and i don’t wanna see him killed off, and like i said before, although he expresses remorse in 3x02, i’m not sure if it’s gonna be enough moving forward. i’ve always been interested in his character and have never shied away from the fact that Ward absolutely aided in fucking him up for life, BUT i just don’t know if Rafe himself thinks he needs redeeming. and i especially don’t know if he’ll be thinking in that way in the aftermath of Ward’s death.
but really, who knows???? i’m voting squarely against a redemption or any kind of sacrifice, but god, i am so so so intrigued to see where the pates take him.
this was really fun to think about and i could probably ramble on for way way way longer, but this is long enough already!!! thanks for sparking up the discussion! ☺️